Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 20 at the 72

Miami Dolphins 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

(14:45) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 12 yards to MIA 40, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-42-S.Paysinger.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP

23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
77% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model