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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 8 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 27 yards to MIA 11, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.46 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.46 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +0.89 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 47, worth -3.69 EP
PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model