Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

(4:56) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to PIT 31, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.18 EP
66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.08 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model