Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 15 – Miami Dolphins 30

(:11) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 84-A.Brown to PIT 49 for 5 yards (42-S.Paysinger).

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.33 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -0.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model