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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 23 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

What Actually Happened

(4:29) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 34 yards to PIT 2, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-38-C.Chekwa.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.86 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP