Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 82

Pittsburgh Steelers 8 – Miami Dolphins 23

What Actually Happened

(:39) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-60-G.Warren. 19-J.Grant to MIA 48 for 15 yards (44-T.Matakevich). PIT-98-V.Williams was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.88 EP
52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model