Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

(12:22) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to MIA 24, Center-60-G.Warren. 14-J.Landry pushed ob at MIA 35 for 11 yards (51-S.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.04 EP
58% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model