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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 8 – Miami Dolphins 9

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 25 yards to MIA 29, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-98-V.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.26 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.59 EP