4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 8

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Field Goal formation) 3-A.Franks 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.68 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP