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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 71

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 9-S.Lechler punts 31 yards to IND 40, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.19 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model