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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 23 – Houston Texans 23

What Actually Happened

(:23) 1-P.McAfee punts 32 yards to HOU 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.71 EP