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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 8

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Houston Texans 9

What Actually Happened

(:53) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck sacked at HOU 13 for -5 yards (59-W.Mercilus).

The Three Options

GO +3.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 8, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model