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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 15 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 8-A.Lee punts 39 yards to NO 4, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-21-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.79 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model