4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 68-T.Lelito reported in as eligible. 82-C.Fleener right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.58 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.84 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model