Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 18 at the 93

New Orleans Saints 31 – Carolina Panthers 17

(1:07) 6-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to CAR 39, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to 50 for 11 yards (36-D.Lasco).

The Three Options

GO -3.53 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.15 EP
70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model