Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 21 – Carolina Panthers 3

(2:37) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 33, Center-47-J.Drescher. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 37 for 4 yards (19-J.Lampman).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.45 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model