4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 21 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 3-W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.55 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP