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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to NYG 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 17-D.Harris. PENALTY on BAL-46-M.Cox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.22 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 53, worth -3.17 EP
KICK -2.08 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 15, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model