Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(6:00) 9-B.Wing punts 48 yards to BAL 25, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 21-L.Webb to BAL 28 for 3 yards (43-B.Rainey). PENALTY on NYG-51-Z.DeOssie, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.92 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model