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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 16 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass deep right to 11-K.Aiken to NYG 44 for 22 yards (21-L.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 66, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 24, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model