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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 80

New York Giants 17 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 9-B.Wing punts 53 yards to BAL 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 80, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 37, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model