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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 1

Baltimore Ravens 13 – New York Giants 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 28-T.West left end pushed ob at NYG 2 for -1 yards (52-J.Casillas).

The Three Options

GO +3.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +0.42 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model