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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 10

What Actually Happened

(6:03) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 11 for 6 yards (42-M.Huff).

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 19, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model