Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 20 at the 57

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 4-S.Koch punts 34 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-D.Harris to NYG 23 for no gain (84-D.Waller). NYG-17-D.Harris was injured during the play. NYG-31-T.Wade was injured during the play. PENALTY on BAL-42-M.Huff, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 23.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.30 EP
78% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 57, worth -2.89 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model