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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(3:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 80-V.Cruz to BAL 30 for 10 yards (22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.63 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.39 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model