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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 73

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:20) 9-B.Wing punts 47 yards to BAL 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.51 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 31, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP