Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 61

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

(15:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to SEA 17, Center-47-J.Harris. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 19 for 2 yards (14-E.Weems; 80-L.Toilolo).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 61, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model