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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:01) 9-J.Ryan punts 40 yards to ATL 17, Center-48-N.Frese, fair catch by 14-E.Weems. PENALTY on ATL-34-B.Poole, Offensive Holding, 8 yards, enforced at ATL 17.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.18 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 57, worth -2.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 17, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model