Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 75

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Seattle Seahawks 26

(1:39) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle to 11-J.Jones (25-R.Sherman) [90-J.Reed].

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

What Happened

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.20 EP
63% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.37 EP