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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 51

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 51, worth -3.05 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.05 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model