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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 68

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 9-J.Ryan punts 58 yards to ATL 10, Center-48-N.Frese. 14-E.Weems pushed ob at ATL 21 for 11 yards (58-K.Pierre-Louis).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model