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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 3-M.Bryant 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.68 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model