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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to SEA 42 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner; 90-J.Reed).

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 44, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -1.20 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model