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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 60

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 45 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model