Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 75

Washington Commanders 16 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(2:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to BAL 28, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 14-D.Hester to BAL 44 for 16 yards (22-D.Everett). PENALTY on BAL-41-A.Levine, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.10 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -3.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model