Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(5:44) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 54 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 4 yards (11-K.Aiken). PENALTY on WAS-32-R.Kelley, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 21.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.20 EP
52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model