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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 89

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 16

What Actually Happened

(9:23) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to WAS 37, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.45 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 89, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model