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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 8

Washington Commanders 13 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:18) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.87 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 8, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP