4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 13

What Actually Happened

(7:09) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 68 yards to WAS 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-11-K.Aiken.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model