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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 61

Washington Commanders 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(12:45) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.20 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 61, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 20, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP