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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 20

Washington Commanders 6 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(1:28) 31-M.Jones up the middle to BAL 20 for no gain (78-M.Pierce).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 20, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model