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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Gillmore (29-D.Ihenacho) [24-J.Norman]. Fake Field Goal.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.78 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP