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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 8-A.Lee punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP