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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 19-R.Aguayo 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model