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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-A.Lee punts 43 yards to TB 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.55 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP