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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 28

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 19-R.Aguayo 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.35 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model