Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(3:35) 8-A.Lee punts 52 yards to TB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-A.Humphries to TB 31 for 12 yards (52-J.Norris; 84-E.Dickson).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.77 EP
56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model