4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:59) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to CAR 26, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn pushed ob at CAR 32 for 6 yards (37-K.Tandy).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model