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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 11 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 19-R.Aguayo 33 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.72 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model