Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 77

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 9-B.Anger punts 48 yards to CAR 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 19-T.Ginn MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-89-R.Shepard at CAR 30. 89-R.Shepard to CAR 30 for no gain (19-T.Ginn).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model